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作者

来源

JOURNAL OF HOUSING AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT,Vol.32,Issue4,P.787-804

语言

英文

关键字

House prices; Bubbles; Kenya; MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD-ESTIMATION; RATIONAL BUBBLES; COINTEGRATION VECTORS; HOUSING PRICE; TIME-SERIES; UNIT-ROOT; MODEL; FUNDAMENTALS; PARAMETER; INFERENCE

作者单位

[Kibunyi, Duncan; Ndiritu, S. Wagura] Strathmore Univ, Strathmore Business Sch, Ole Sangale Rd,Madaraka Estate,POB 59857, Nairobi 00200, Kenya. [Carcel, Hector; Gil-Alana, Luis A.] Univ Navarra, Fac Econ, Pamplona 31008, Spain. [Carcel, Hector; Gil-Alana, Luis A.] Univ Navarra, ICS Navarra Ctr Int Dev, Pamplona 31008, Spain. Gil-Alana, LA (reprint author), Univ Navarra, Fac Econ, Pamplona 31008, Spain.; Gil-Alana, LA (reprint author), Univ Navarra, ICS Navarra Ctr Int Dev, Pamplona 31008, Spain. E-Mail: alana@unav.es

摘要

This study focuses on the determinants of the prices of houses in Nairobi, Kenya. The study finds housing prices to have positive relationships with GDP, diaspora remittances, lending rates, loans to real estate sector and cost of construction. A negative relationship exists between the house prices and inflation. Results of the cointegration tests indicate the existence of stable long-run relationships between house prices and each of GDP and NSE Index, while unstable relationships are reported for diaspora remittances and building costs. Using fractional integration, the results show higher orders of integration for the house price series compared with the other variables, though the study is indifferent about the existence of a house price bubble. Granger causality tests indicate there are no causal relationships between house prices and diaspora remittances. However, there are two way causalities between house prices and each of GDP, building costs and NSE Index. This negates the existence of a house price bubble.