What makes better village economic development in traditional agricultural areas of China? Evidence from 338 villages

《What makes better village economic development in traditional agricultural areas of China? Evidence from 338 villages》

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作者: Xiaofei Qin;Yurui Li;Zhi Lu;Wei Pan

来源: HABITAT INTERNATIONAL,Vol.106,P.102286

语言: 英文

关键字: Village economic development;Multi-dimensional factors;Boosted regression trees;Traditional agricultural areas;Rural revitalization

作者单位: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China;Peter B. Gustavson School of Business, University of Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China;Peter B. Gustavson School of Business, University of Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada

摘要: Villages are homes for most rural residents and powerhouses of the rural economy, with a vital role in reducing rural-urban disparity. It raises the need to explore the driving forces of village development, which in turn sheds light on strategies to secure rural revitalization. This research aims to dissect the factors contributing to village economic development through quantitative analysis of 338 villages in the traditional agricultural area of northern Jiangsu Province, China. This research leverages an integration of the econometric modeling and machine learning methodologies (multiple regression model and Boosted Regression Trees method) to ensure our findings’ accuracy and comparativeness. This research finds: (1) village economic development depends more on the intensity of land-use than the absolute amount of farmland resources; (2) transportation infrastructure, labor outmigration, and land transfer are determinants of village economic development with increasing marginal effects; non-farm employment, entrepreneurship, and bottom-up partnership are also positively related to village economic development despite their non-linear effects. (3) Large-scale labor outmigration would brings a short-term positive effect but poses a long-term challenge to village development. The authors suggest that priority should be given to the construction of transportation infrastructure, regulation of farmland transfer, industrial integration, promotion of rural entrepreneurship, and land consolidation to achieve sustainable development of the village economy.