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作者

来源

REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS,Vol.66,P.185-197

语言

英文

关键字

Clustered Markov switching; Business cycles; Building permits; Co-movements; BUSINESS-CYCLE; MARGINAL LIKELIHOOD; MONETARY-POLICY; URBAN SPRAWL; US STATES; PRICES; MODELS; RECESSIONS; DIFFUSION; MOVEMENTS

作者单位

[Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben] Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, External Outreach & Reg Analyt, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. [Owyang, Michael T.] Fed Reserve Bank St Louis, Div Res, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. [Rubio, Margarita] Univ Nottingham, Dept Econ, Nottingham, England. Owyang, MT (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank St Louis, Div Res, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. E-Mail: Ruben.Hernandez-Murillo@clev.frb.org; Owyang@stls.frb.org; Margarita.Rubio@nottingham.ac.uk

摘要

Using a panel of U.S. city-level building permits data, we estimate a Markov-switching model of housing cycles that allows cities to systematically deviate from the national housing cycle. These deviations occur for clusters of cities that experience simultaneous housing contractions. We find that cities do not form housing regions in the traditional geographic sense. Instead, similarities in factors affecting the demand for housing (such as population growth or availability of credit) appear to be more important determinants of cyclical co-movements than similarities in factors affecting the supply for land (such as the availability of developable land or the elasticity of land supply).