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作者

来源

REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS,Vol.66,P.224-246

语言

英文

关键字

Land; Housing; House prices; Housing boom and bust; Financial crisis; PRICE DYNAMICS; UNITED-STATES; CONSTRUCTION; CHICAGO

作者单位

[Davis, Morris A.] Rutgers State Univ, Piscataway, NJ USA. [Oliner, Stephen D.; Pinto, Edward J.] Amer Enterprise Inst Publ Policy Res, Washington, DC 20036 USA. [Oliner, Stephen D.] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA. [Bokka, Sankar] FNC Inc, Oxford, MS USA. Oliner, SD (reprint author), Amer Enterprise Inst Publ Policy Res, Washington, DC 20036 USA.; Oliner, SD (reprint author), Univ Calif Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA. E-Mail: stephen.oliner@aei.org

摘要

We use a new property-level data set and an innovative methodology to estimate the price of land from 2000 to 2013 for nearly the universe of detached single-family homes in the Washington, DC metro area and to characterize the boom-bust cycle in land and house prices at a fine geography. The results show that land prices were more volatile than house prices everywhere, but especially so in the areas where land was inexpensive in 2000. We demonstrate that the change in the land share of house value during the boom was a significant predictor of the decline in house prices during the bust, highlighting the value of focusing on land in assessing house-price risk.