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作者

来源

来源 JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS,Vol.81,P.45-56

语言

英文

关键字

Housing supply;Housing demand;Method of moments

作者单位

Department of Economics, Harvard University, United States;NBER, United States;The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, United States;Department of Economics, Princeton University, United States;Department of Economics, Harvard University, United States;NBER, United States;The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, United States;Department of Economics, Princeton University, United States

摘要

A dynamic linear rational equilibrium model in the tradition of Alonso, Rosen and Roback is consistent with many outstanding stylized facts of housing markets. These include: (a) that the markets are local in nature; (b) that construction persistence is fully compatible with mean reversion in prices; and (c) that price changes are predictable. Calibration exercises to match moments of the real data have notable successes and failures. The volatility in local income processes as reflected in HMDA mortgage applicant data can account for much of the observed price and construction volatility, except for the most inelastically supplied local markets. The model’s biggest failure lies in its inability to match the strong persistence in high frequency price changes from year to year.