Developing a hybrid risk assessment method for prioritizing the critical risks of temporary accommodation sites after destructive earthquakes

《Developing a hybrid risk assessment method for prioritizing the critical risks of temporary accommodation sites after destructive earthquakes》

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作者: Mostafa Dabiri;Hadi Sarvari;Daniel W.M. Chan;Timothy O. Olawumi

来源: HABITAT INTERNATIONAL,Vol.128,P.102667

语言: 英文

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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran;Department of Civil Engineering, Technical and Vocational University (TVU), Tehran, Iran;Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran;Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China;School of Computing, Engineering and Built Environment, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom;Department of Civil Engineering, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran;Department of Civil Engineering, Technical and Vocational University (TVU), Tehran, Iran;Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran;Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China;School of Computing, Engineering and Built Environment, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom;Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China;Center of Geo-Informatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China;Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati, OH, USA;Department of Geography and Planning, The University of Toledo, OH, USA;Department of Geography, Ghent University, Belgium;Department of Economics, Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia;KU Leuven Public Governance Institute, KU Leuven, Belgium;Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia;Department of Engineering Management, University of Antwerp, Belgium;Department of Natural Resource Management, Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia;Department of Architecture, School of Design and Environment, National University of Singapore, 4 Architecture Drive, Singapore;Urban and Regional Planning Department, University of Colorado Denver, CO, USA;Department of Geography & Earth Sciences, College of Liberal Arts & Sciences, The University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA;College of Arts and Architecture, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA;Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Technical University of Dresden, Helmholtzstraße 10, 01069, Dresden, Germany;Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Weberplatz 1, 01217, Dresden, Germany;Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Weberplatz 1, 01217, Dresden, Germany;Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Helmholtzstr. 10, 01062, Dresden, Germany;College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Chongqing Jiaotong University, No.66 Xuefu Road, Nan'an District, Chongqing, 400074, China;WISSENSARCHITEKTUR-Laboratory of Knowledge Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, TU Dresden, Zellescher Weg 17, BZW-B 009, 01069, Dresden, Germany

摘要: One of the most critical challenges in preventive planning and disaster management is the multitudinous uncertainties involved in decision-making. Previous studies showed the usefulness of intuitionistic fuzzy sets for considering uncertainties in decision-making process. Hence, the current study aims to present a combined model using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and Risk Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (IF-RFMEA) to determine and prioritize the critical risks of temporary accommodation sites after destructive earthquakes in Iran and bridge the existing research gaps in the literature. To this end, 49 common temporary accommodation risks after earthquakes were identified via a desktop literature survey. Then, the fuzzy Delphi technique was applied to determine the top 20 critical risks with the highest priorities according to experts for evaluation using the proposed method. The Delphi panel members included 18 experts based in Iran with relevant hands-on experience in crisis management and risk management. Finally, 20 identified critical risks were evaluated using three criteria of the probability of occurrence, level of effect, and detection value using the IF-RFMEA technique. According to the analytical results, infectious disease challenges, mental and psychological disorders among survivors, and unemployment and closing of businesses, were the most critical risks after earthquakes in the region. The proposed method of analysis can diminish uncertainties and adopt the main criteria of the probability of occurrence, level of effect, and detection value to improve risk assessment results and analysis in relation to the critical risks of temporary accommodation sites after destructive earthquakes.